This month, lady luck appears to be favouring the country’s diesel drivers with the CEF’s predictions pointing to a minor diesel price drop at the beginning of April. Petrol drivers won’t be as fortunate when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) gets ’round to altering the pumps on the first Wednesday of the new month.

The prices, Mason!

It’s not worth sulking about just yet. The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting to the DoE, might offer up the most accurate representation of South Africa’s waning or growing petrol and diesel prices, but their word is not law. That responsibility lies with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of this month.

Until that happens, the CEF’s numbers are the best we’ve got. It arrived at these figures by looking at all the same information the Department does at the end of the month, giving us a running bout of predictions to help us better prepare for the official 3 April 2024 changeover date.

That means keeping an eye on the average price of refined oil globally throughout the month, and the current Rand/US Dollar exchange. South Africa’s economic position is a major factor, with changes to load shedding or falling Rand values massively affecting the price we’ll see in April.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for April 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 8 cents per litre (R0.08)
• Petrol 95: increase of 10 cents per litre (R0.10)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 33 cents per litre (R0.33)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 38 cents per litre (R0.38)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 46 cents per litre (R0.46)

Don’t set those hopes up too high just yet. The country won’t exactly be getting off scot-free by the time April rolls around, but the figures down below are a far cry from the R1.14/l increase that’s been bandied about this week. Hey, we’re willing to take anything as long as it’s less than the increases the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) saddled us with on Wednesday.

(Kinda) Good news for diesel drivers

While the DoE is officially in charge of altering the country’s petrol pumps at the beginning of a new month, the CEF — an energy company reporting to the DoE — is responsible for keeping an eye on the fluctuating price throughout the month. The idea is to give us a rough — and we mean rough — idea of the incoming changes to other prepare celebrations, or as more often happens, commiserations.

The CEF arrives at the numbers below by looking at all the same information the DoE does, just on a more regular basis. Judging by the weakening Rand in comparison to the Dollar, and the rising price of refined oil globally, we’re in for a rough month. Multiple economic factors are constantly influencing these figures, meaning there’s still time for South Africa to turn this tanker around.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for April 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 51 cents per litre (R0.51)
• Petrol 95: increase of 52 cents per litre (R0.52)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 14 cents per litre (R0.14)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 14 cents per litre (R0.14)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 17 cents per litre (R0.17)

Yup. The Department just published March’s official petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin prices and… they’re not pretty. It’s not all bad news, however. The increases promised won’t be coming into effect until midnight on Wednesday, 6 March. This means there’s still plenty of time to get to your nearest petrol station and make the most of the somewhat ‘reasonable’ prices while you still can.

Not South Africa’s best March

If you’re in search of somebody to blame, it won’t be the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, despite them being the country’s official fuel regulators. No, it’ll be the economy at large hearing your grievances, with Eskom’s constantly shifting load shedding schedule doing more bad for the Rand than good. If anyone is to blame, it’s the state-owned power controller that stopped you watching TV last night.

All the Department is responsible for is informing the country of their woes, landing on a price based on the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate for the past month, and the average price of refined oil internationally. Throughout February, the Rand weakened significantly, leading to the increases you see below, according to the Department.

Fortunately, things weren’t as bad as they could have been. The Department’s announcement mentions that the current Slate levy on petrol and diesel will remain unchanged at R0 — meaning the government isn’t imposing a further increase on residents this month. Still… there’s a R1+ increase to deal with. Let’s get down to it, shall we?

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From 00:01 on the morning of Wednesday, 6 March, petroleum-based fuels will see the following changes:

• Petrol 93: increase of 121 cents per litre (R1.21)
• Petrol 95: increase of 121 cents per litre (R1.21)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 105 cents per litre (R1.05)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 118 cents per litre (R1.18)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 85 cents per litre (R0.85)
• LPGAS: increase of 41 cents per kilogram (R0.41)

It’s not all bad news, however. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) — the state-owned energy company responsible for keeping an eye on the country’s fuel prices — has blessed us with a fresh batch of data (captured 22 February) that’s predicting a moderately more bearable outcome for the petrol pumps at the beginning of March.

Don’t get us wrong. We aren’t promising you’ll be leaving here happy after seeing the CEF’s predictions. But we can promise it’ll be slightly more uplifting than the R1.50+ price hikes that have been on the cards for a while.

Bad news, everyone!

It’s worth noting that the prices below aren’t the ones we’ll see at the pumps on Wednesday, 6 March. Those have yet to be decided by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — which it will do at the end of the month. Until then, the CEF’s predictions are all we’ve got to go on. That doesn’t mean they’re not accurate — and a valuable resource.

See, the CEF looks at all the same data that the Department does to arrive at its predictions. That means keeping an eye out for the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and the price of oil internationally. The only thing the CEF can’t account for is the Department’s monthly changes to the slate levy and retail margin — which has been known to add a good few cents into the mix.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for March 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 112 cents per litre (R1.12)
• Petrol 95: increase of 116 cents per litre (R1.16)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 113 cents per litre (R1.13)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 128 cents per litre (R1.28)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 69 cents per litre (R0.69)

Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time to turn things around and knock that price down. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — the ones responsible for the country’s monthly commiseration or, on occasion, celebration — reserves the ritual of altering the price at the fuel pumps for the first Wednesday of a new month. That’ll be Wednesday, 6 March if whipping out your calendars is too much of a hassle.

There’s still time to turn things around, right? Right?

See, the figures we’ve got below aren’t what you’ll see at the pumps come that Wednesday. These are coming from the CEF, a state-owned energy company that reports to the Department we keep babbling on about. That doesn’t mean it isn’t as accurate as can be. The CEF looks at all the pertinent factors as the Department does at the end of the month to arrive at the numbers we’ve got here.

That means keeping an eye on the current Rand/US Dollar exchange and the price of oil prices internationally. The CEF does not account for the Department’s monthly changes to the slate levy or retail margin — which regularly offers a little surprise in the form of a minor price hike at the beginning of each month. Without any further ado, then:

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for March 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 131 cents per litre (R1.31)
• Petrol 95: increase of 135 cents per litre (R1.35)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 144 cents per litre (R1.44)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 158 cents per litre (R1.58)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 97 cents per litre (R0.97)

Should these predictions hold until the Department’s official changes in March, we could be looking at paying R24.23 for a litre of 93ULP inland, while 95ULP could rise to R24.59/l inland, and a less-scary R23.87/l in coastal regions. Diesel, on the other hand, is more likely to have your wallet hiding under the couch of fear. You could be paying R22.80 for a litre of 0.05% diesel inland and R22.08 on the coast.

That’s what the Central Energy Fund (CEF) had to say, at least. And when the CEF speaks, we tend to listen — because it’s the closest thing to being an ‘authority’ on the subject when it comes to petrol and diesel price predictions. Last week, the CEF was predicting somewhat, for lack of a better word, “tame” figures to break the Department’s streak. That’s… not the word we’d use now.

Can we skip straight to March? Pretty please?

Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s still plenty of time for things to turn around before the Department has its way with the country’s fuel pumps. That’ll be taking place on Wednesday, 7 February for any petrol price prediction newbies.

There’s time for a turn-around because of how the CEF collects its data and arrives at the figures we’ve got down below. It looks at all the same data that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy does — such as the average price of refined oil globally, and the month’s average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate used to purchase it — to arrive at a number that’s about as accurate as it can be.

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Even then, it’s worth remembering that the CEF doesn’t take into account any of the Department’s slate levies or retail margin changes, which have in the past, massively altered a month’s fuel prices.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for February 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 42 cents per litre (R0.42)
• Petrol 95: increase of 43 cents per litre (R0.43)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 44 cents per litre (R0.44)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 40 cents per litre (R0.40)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 34 cents per litre (R0.34)

Source

The only reprieve we can offer is that the CEF’s predictions — which are more than likely to be the closest thing to ‘correct’ as possible — aren’t filling our brains with scary ideas of a R1+ increase. You might even call them ‘tame’, but we’ll avoid passing judgement until the CEF’s predictions come to fruition.

A rough February for petrol and diesel ahead

If this isn’t your first fuel price prediction rodeo, will be taking place at midnight come Wednesday, 7 February. That’s when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy likes to target the country’s pumps.

Despite our talk that the CEF is one of the more reliable indicators of the month’s upcoming fuel prices, it’s worth remembering that their word isn’t fact. They are merely predictions, with the figures conjured up based on a couple of different economic factors — such as the current average price of refined oil globally, and the average Rand/US Dollar exchange for the month.

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The CEF’s figures don’t take into account any of the Department’s slate levies or retail margin changes, which have been known to significantly alter a month’s petrol and diesel prices in the past. At the end of a month, the Department looks at all the same information and arrives at a decision — whether we like it or not.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for February 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 21 cents per litre (R0.21)
• Petrol 95: increase of 19 cents per litre (R0.19)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 21 cents per litre (R0.21)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 15 cents per litre (R0.15)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 10 cents per litre (R0.10)

In a feat we thought impossible, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has hit a three-month streak for fuel price decreases. The last time the country felt the sting of an increase was back in October 2023 — with November and December’s petrol and diesel prices decreasing by R2.43 and R3.26 respectively. We’re happy to report those numbers are only going to grow. Just, uh, don’t get your hopes up for a repeat in February, yeah?

Fuel for the soul (and wallets)

Better yet, there’s no waiting around for the country’s pumps to change their tune. The change-over already took place at midnight on Wednesday, 3 January 2024. For newbies, these reduced prices have little to do with South Africa’s government. Contributing to those declining fuel prices are the usual kickers, with the Department looking at the average value of the Rand compared to the US Dollar throughout December, which saw a depreciation overall, thus leading to a price slash.

On the other hand, our government does control the slate levy mechanism — one that is rarely on the side of the people. This month, however, is different. Going against the usual order of things, a decrease of 26c/l has been implemented for January. Our advice? Enjoy it while it lasts.

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From 00:01 on the morning of Wednesday, 3 January, petroleum-based fuels saw the following changes:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 62 cents per litre (R0.62)
• Petrol 95: decrease of 76 cents per litre (R0.76)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 118 cents per litre (R1.18)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 126 cents per litre (R1.26)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 93 cents per litre (R0.93)
• LPGAS: increase of 11 cents per kilogram (R0.11)

Diesel on your mind?

You might be thinking that another price drop is just too good to be true. After an already rare two-month price drop streak, we don’t blame you. We thought the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy would definitely be out for blood more money.

Still, it’s probably a good idea to somewhat tamper those expectations. The data we’re discussing comes from the CEF’s mouth — and doesn’t have any official control over what goes on at the country’s pumps at the beginning of a new month. It looks at any pertinent data — specifically the current price of refined oil and the Rand/US Dollar exchange — to arrive at the figures below.

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Fortunately, that’s all the same data that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — the pump’s true decider — looks at before making its final decision at the end of each month. The CEF’s figures below won’t be entirely accurate, but they’re as close as we’re going to get. That’s if Eskom can hold up its end of the ‘no load shedding’ bargain.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for January 2024:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 49 cents per litre (R0.49)
• Petrol 95: decrease of 95 cents per litre (R0.95)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 111 cents per litre (R1.11)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 119 cents per litre (R1.19)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 112 cents per litre (R1.12)

Our old hands, though, know just how rare it is to come off better in a fight with the Department of Mineral Resources two months in a row, let alone three. Petrol saw R1.78 and R0.65 drops in November and December respectively, with diesel seeing similar-enough drops of R0.85 and R2.40.

Could this be a diesel Christmas miracle?

Should the country play its cards right — meaning no sudden returns to Stage 6 (we’re looking at you, Eskom) — we could have another half-decent price decrease on our hands before the country has to go back to work. For the second month running, it’s looking like it’ll be diesel drivers who hold the bragging rights, with the CEF’s predictions pointing to a R1+ drop.

Whether the country will come out on the other side of 2023 with these prices is another matter altogether. The CEF cannot control South Africa’s fuel prices — that’s a job for the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — but it pulls out a fairly reliable figure based on the current price of refined oil globally and the Rand/US Dollar exchange of the moment.

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Before the first Wednesday of a new month, in this case, 3 January 2024, the Department looks at similar data and makes its decision after throwing in a slate levy or two for the hell of it. So while the CEF’s predicted figures below won’t be exact, they’ll be as similar as possible barring any major natural disasters.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for January 2024:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 64 cents per litre (R0.64)
• Petrol 95: decrease of 77 cents per litre (R0.77)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 139 cents per litre (R1.39)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 146 cents per litre (R1.46)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 135 cents per litre (R1.35)