Stuff South Africa

Diesel drivers could be winning at the petrol pumps this April

Trent Meikle — Tue, 19 Mar 2024 08:31:55 +0000

Playing the petrol price prediction game can be finicky. Just a week or two ago, we were reporting another rough month for South Africa’s drivers — both diesel and petrol. Now, thanks to a fresh crop of figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), things are beginning to look a whole lot brighter. For one set of drivers, at least.

This month, lady luck appears to be favouring the country’s diesel drivers with the CEF’s predictions pointing to a minor diesel price drop at the beginning of April. Petrol drivers won’t be as fortunate when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) gets ’round to altering the pumps on the first Wednesday of the new month.

The prices, Mason!

It’s not worth sulking about just yet. The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting to the DoE, might offer up the most accurate representation of South Africa’s waning or growing petrol and diesel prices, but their word is not law. That responsibility lies with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of this month.

Until that happens, the CEF’s numbers are the best we’ve got. It arrived at these figures by looking at all the same information the Department does at the end of the month, giving us a running bout of predictions to help us better prepare for the official 3 April 2024 changeover date.

That means keeping an eye on the average price of refined oil globally throughout the month, and the current Rand/US Dollar exchange. South Africa’s economic position is a major factor, with changes to load shedding or falling Rand values massively affecting the price we’ll see in April.

Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for April 2024:

Petrol 93: increase of 8 cents per litre (R0.08)
Petrol 95: increase of 10 cents per litre (R0.10)
Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 33 cents per litre (R0.33)
Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 38 cents per litre (R0.38)
Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 46 cents per litre (R0.46)

March’s expected petrol prices may have you paying an arm and a leg for a tank

Trent Meikle — Tue, 13 Feb 2024 13:06:51 +0000

It just never ends, does it? After the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s recent battle with the country’s petrol and diesel prices — to which the country lost in spectacular fashion — you’d think we’d be afforded a reprieve, however slight. Well… that isn’t happening. At least that’s what the Central Energy Fund (CEF) had to say on the subject, having just dropped a fresh batch of predictions on our heads.

Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time to turn things around and knock that price down. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — the ones responsible for the country’s monthly commiseration or, on occasion, celebration — reserves the ritual of altering the price at the fuel pumps for the first Wednesday of a new month. That’ll be Wednesday, 6 March if whipping out your calendars is too much of a hassle.

There’s still time to turn things around, right? Right?

See, the figures we’ve got below aren’t what you’ll see at the pumps come that Wednesday. These are coming from the CEF, a state-owned energy company that reports to the Department we keep babbling on about. That doesn’t mean it isn’t as accurate as can be. The CEF looks at all the pertinent factors as the Department does at the end of the month to arrive at the numbers we’ve got here.

That means keeping an eye on the current Rand/US Dollar exchange and the price of oil prices internationally. The CEF does not account for the Department’s monthly changes to the slate levy or retail margin — which regularly offers a little surprise in the form of a minor price hike at the beginning of each month. Without any further ado, then:

Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for March 2024:

Petrol 93: increase of 131 cents per litre (R1.31)
Petrol 95: increase of 135 cents per litre (R1.35)
Diesel 0.05%: increase of 144 cents per litre (R1.44)
Diesel 0.005%: increase of 158 cents per litre (R1.58)
Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 97 cents per litre (R0.97)

Should these predictions hold until the Department’s official changes in March, we could be looking at paying R24.23 for a litre of 93ULP inland, while 95ULP could rise to R24.59/l inland, and a less-scary R23.87/l in coastal regions. Diesel, on the other hand, is more likely to have your wallet hiding under the couch of fear. You could be paying R22.80 for a litre of 0.05% diesel inland and R22.08 on the coast.

February’s official fuel prices are in: you might want to cover your eyes

Trent Meikle — Tue, 06 Feb 2024 09:20:26 +0000

After spending the better part of January living in denial of the Central Energy Fund’s increasingly depressing run of petrol and diesel price predictions, it’s time to face the music. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has brought to an end what could have been a four-month-long streak of fuel price decreases — having just published the official figures that’ll be hitting the country’s pumps on Wednesday, 7 February.

What are you still doing here? Go and fill up

Honestly, considering the circumstances, February’s price hikes aren’t nearly as rough as they might have been. The last time the country felt the sting of an increase — at least where petrol and diesel prices are concerned — was back in October 2023 at nearly R2/litre.

Still, it doesn’t make the roughly 70c price hike across the board any less nasty. If you’re the type to take and listen to advice — head down to the nearest petrol station. Now. Before the news starts to leak out and leaves you sitting at the pumps for an extra twenty minutes. We’ll wait.

The Department isn’t entirely at fault for the country’s rising (or decreasing) prices. That’s not to say it’s entirely blameless — it’s in charge of the slate levy mechanism that has rarely ever aligned with the country’s wishes. But the brunt of the blame (or praise) simply lies with the economy — specifically the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and price of refined oil globally. Both of these saw an appreciation throughout January, ultimately landing us in the mess we’re facing now.

Worse than you thought: February’s latest petrol price predictions promise a bleak month ahead

Trent Meikle — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 13:35:33 +0000

Remember last week? When the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) predictions warnings of a 40c price hike across petrol and diesel prices would be a tad too rough on the country’s collective wallet? About that… The CEF’s latest round of data — captured on 1 February 2024 — is predicting yet another major price hike come February. We’d gladly return to last week to ease up on the sarcasm.

But what’s done is done, and there’s no use in crying about it. And — forgive us for huffing a little copium — there’s always the chance things turn around before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy inflicts its will upon the country’s fuel pumps. If this is your first rodeo, that’ll be taking place on Wednesday, 7 February at midnight. Our professional opinion? We’d, uh, recommend filling up before that happens.

Have you tried running instead?

The data below isn’t official. It’s from the Central Energy Fund, which affords us the ability to be at least a little bit optimistic that things might change before the Department of Mineral Resource and Energy’s official decision arrives in the early stages of next week.

That isn’t to say you shouldn’t still be stressed. The CEF’s data is about as close to official as anything can be. It arrives at the figures you can see down below by looking at all the same data the Department does — such as the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and the international price of refined oil. Considering the massive jump above the $80 mark for Brent Crude oil at the end of January, we’re not surprised at the CEF’s figures.

The only difference? The CEF doesn’t take into account the Department’s slate levies or retail margin changes which have been known to drastically alter the month’s prices. Unfortunately, it rarely ever goes our way.

All signs point to a price hike for petrol and diesel drivers this February

Trent Meikle — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 11:10:18 +0000

Well, it was fun while it lasted, eh? After going three months without any sort of petrol and diesel price hike, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is looking like it’ll end that streak come the first week of February. That’s if the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest data dump, captured on 17 January, has anything to say on the subject — it usually does.

The only reprieve we can offer is that the CEF’s predictions — which are more than likely to be the closest thing to ‘correct’ as possible — aren’t filling our brains with scary ideas of a R1+ increase. You might even call them ‘tame’, but we’ll avoid passing judgement until the CEF’s predictions come to fruition.

A rough February for petrol and diesel ahead

If this isn’t your first fuel price prediction rodeo, will be taking place at midnight come Wednesday, 7 February. That’s when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy likes to target the country’s pumps.

Despite our talk that the CEF is one of the more reliable indicators of the month’s upcoming fuel prices, it’s worth remembering that their word isn’t fact. They are merely predictions, with the figures conjured up based on a couple of different economic factors — such as the current average price of refined oil globally, and the average Rand/US Dollar exchange for the month.

There’s another R1+ diesel and petrol price drop on the cards for January

Trent Meikle — Wed, 20 Dec 2023 08:47:42 +0000

It’s that time of the ~~month~~ week again. Time to delve into the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest data dump to glean what we can about the country’s expected petrol and diesel price changes in the first week of the New Year. Anybody who’s been paying attention should already have a rough idea of what’s coming — and know that we come bearing good tidings, with the new forecasts predicting a R1+ drop for diesel drivers at the least.

Diesel on your mind?

You might be thinking that another price drop is just too good to be true. After an already rare two-month price drop streak, we don’t blame you. We thought the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy would definitely be out for blood more money.

Still, it’s probably a good idea to somewhat tamper those expectations. The data we’re discussing comes from the CEF’s mouth — and doesn’t have any official control over what goes on at the country’s pumps at the beginning of a new month. It looks at any pertinent data — specifically the current price of refined oil and the Rand/US Dollar exchange — to arrive at the figures below.

Petrol and diesel both hit with monumental price hike in September

Trent Meikle — Mon, 04 Sep 2023 12:25:00 +0000

It’s been a rough August for many South African wallets. There’s the obvious – with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy slapping us with a fuel price increase in August’s early days. The gaming sector too – especially PlayStation – hit the country with even larger hikes. More than once. September isn’t changing that trend, with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy announcing one of the largest petrol and diesel price hikes we’ve seen in months.

We’re not surprised, either. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has been predicting the coming petrol and diesel price hike for weeks now. Based on the weaker-than-usual Rand/US Dollar exchange, the rising price of refined oil, and South Africa’s general incompetence when it comes to Eskom, it was hardly a surprise when the Department announced a nearly R3.00 increase in diesel prices for September.

Is September over yet?

There’s no need to go rushing off to the nearest petrol station yet. The Department’s new prices will only be reflected at the pumps on Wednesday, 6 September at 00:01, leaving the country with plenty of time to fill up. Still… we wouldn’t wait too long to get going. We’re getting woozy just imagining the queues.

From 00:01 on the morning of Wednesday, 6 September, petroleum-based fuels will see the following increases:

Petrol 93: increase of 171 cents per litre (R1.71)
Petrol 95: increase of 171 cents per litre (R1.71)
Diesel 0.05%: increase of 284 cents per litre (R2.84)
Diesel 0.005%: increase of 276 cents per litre (R2.76)
Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 278 cents per litre (R2.78)

There’s no sugar-coating on this one. It’s not a pretty sight, and it’s one that’s going to stick around ‘til October rolls ‘round. It might even continue to increase, depending on how well the Rand fares against the US Dollar over the coming month. That’s the excuse the Department is throwing our way, anyway.

September’s massive fuel increase could be larger than initially expected

Duncan Pike — Wed, 23 Aug 2023 09:45:09 +0000

After our first peek at the predictions for September’s fuel prices, we weren’t exactly thrilled to learn we could be facing an increase, by as much as R2.52 in some cases, for petrol, diesel, and paraffin. Well, we’ve just had our second peek at what the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy reckons fuel will cost next month and somehow things are now worse.

It’s still worth noting – because sometimes panic causes people to miss important bits of info – that while these updated figures are official, they’re still only predictions from the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data. There’s still time for them to change between now and 6 September, when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will set South Africa’s official fuel prices for September.

Unfortunately, the CEF hasn’t often veered far from its predictions in the past so we’ll likely need nothing short of a miracle to dodge the incoming increases across the board. A large, sudden drop in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate would help. But that isn’t looking likely, with the way things currently stand.

Anyone checked the price of horses lately?

With these expected increases, it might be time to seek alternative modes of transportation. If anyone knows a good horse breeder in the Gauteng area, share the details in the comments section below so that we can, uh… review them. Otherwise, these shoes stylishly separate each toe for increased dexterity and grip (we think) and should last at least a month of walking. Anything to avoid paying the new prices at the pump.

Anyway, here are the predicted fuel price increases:

Petrol 93: increase of 156 cents per litre (R1.55)
Petrol 95: increase of 160 cents per litre (R1.60)
Diesel 0.05%: increase of 274 cents per litre (R2.74)
Diesel 0.005%: increase of 270 cents per litre (R2.70)
Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 270 cents per litre (R2.70)

Source

There could be a massive petrol and diesel price increase in September

Trent Meikle — Fri, 11 Aug 2023 09:51:35 +0000

We’ve just had a peek at September’s petrol and diesel price predictions. We wish we hadn’t because we didn’t like what we saw. You… probably won’t, either. SA motorists have only just come to terms with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s decision to increase fuel prices across the board and we’re already facing another potential increase.

Before you panic, these figures are by no means official and may not reflect what we see at the pumps in September. These are only predictions, coming from the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) own data. Having said that, the CEF is rarely far off the mark. It arrives at a figure based on the current price of refined oil globally, matching it up against the current Rand/US Dollar exchange.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will decide the country’s official petrol and diesel prices come Wednesday, 6 September 2023.

Petrol price hike on the cards

If you’ve been paying attention to the Rand, the resulting fuel price predictions shouldn’t come as much of a shock. According to economists at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), the Rand’s sudden surge to R18 to the dollar might have something to do with the “market unease” globally.

It’s not just the Rand at fault here, however easy it is to blame Eskom for the country’s misgivings. The BER also mentioned yet another rise in Brent crude oil prices, a 1.1% increase – the sixth consecutive week this has happened. We won’t bore you with the details, but that’s the gist of it.

July’s fuel price prediction promises a (slight) drop in petrol prices

Trent Meikle — Mon, 19 Jun 2023 12:15:44 +0000

Somehow, we’re already in June. The middle of June to be specific, which means we’re just over two weeks away from the Department of Energy’s official decision that’ll determine the fate of the country’s petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin prices in July.

Fortunately, we don’t need the Department of Energy to get some sort of idea of where those prices are headed in the here and now. That’s a job for the Central Energy Fund (CEF), with its latest predictions pointing towards a (slight) drop in petrol prices. Diesel, on the other hand…

Good news for petrol drivers

Before we get into that, we’ve got to get a few things straight. The CEF’s figures below (captured on 16 June 2023) are by no means fact. They are predictions, though they’re about as accurate as can be. That’s because it makes its predictions based on the current price of oil, globally, and the Rand/US Dollar exchange used to purchase it – similar to that of the Department of Energy’s thought process before deciding the month’s official fuel prices.

And, for the most part, both have stayed relatively flat. The Rand is continuing to struggle, sure, but it’s no worse off than it was at the beginning of June. Oil, too, has hardly budged. That leaves us with one of the most stable price predictions we’ve seen for a while.