This month, lady luck appears to be favouring the country’s diesel drivers with the CEF’s predictions pointing to a minor diesel price drop at the beginning of April. Petrol drivers won’t be as fortunate when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) gets ’round to altering the pumps on the first Wednesday of the new month.

The prices, Mason!

It’s not worth sulking about just yet. The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting to the DoE, might offer up the most accurate representation of South Africa’s waning or growing petrol and diesel prices, but their word is not law. That responsibility lies with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of this month.

Until that happens, the CEF’s numbers are the best we’ve got. It arrived at these figures by looking at all the same information the Department does at the end of the month, giving us a running bout of predictions to help us better prepare for the official 3 April 2024 changeover date.

That means keeping an eye on the average price of refined oil globally throughout the month, and the current Rand/US Dollar exchange. South Africa’s economic position is a major factor, with changes to load shedding or falling Rand values massively affecting the price we’ll see in April.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for April 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 8 cents per litre (R0.08)
• Petrol 95: increase of 10 cents per litre (R0.10)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 33 cents per litre (R0.33)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 38 cents per litre (R0.38)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 46 cents per litre (R0.46)

Don’t set those hopes up too high just yet. The country won’t exactly be getting off scot-free by the time April rolls around, but the figures down below are a far cry from the R1.14/l increase that’s been bandied about this week. Hey, we’re willing to take anything as long as it’s less than the increases the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) saddled us with on Wednesday.

(Kinda) Good news for diesel drivers

While the DoE is officially in charge of altering the country’s petrol pumps at the beginning of a new month, the CEF — an energy company reporting to the DoE — is responsible for keeping an eye on the fluctuating price throughout the month. The idea is to give us a rough — and we mean rough — idea of the incoming changes to other prepare celebrations, or as more often happens, commiserations.

The CEF arrives at the numbers below by looking at all the same information the DoE does, just on a more regular basis. Judging by the weakening Rand in comparison to the Dollar, and the rising price of refined oil globally, we’re in for a rough month. Multiple economic factors are constantly influencing these figures, meaning there’s still time for South Africa to turn this tanker around.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for April 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 51 cents per litre (R0.51)
• Petrol 95: increase of 52 cents per litre (R0.52)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 14 cents per litre (R0.14)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 14 cents per litre (R0.14)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 17 cents per litre (R0.17)

It’s not all bad news, however. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) — the state-owned energy company responsible for keeping an eye on the country’s fuel prices — has blessed us with a fresh batch of data (captured 22 February) that’s predicting a moderately more bearable outcome for the petrol pumps at the beginning of March.

Don’t get us wrong. We aren’t promising you’ll be leaving here happy after seeing the CEF’s predictions. But we can promise it’ll be slightly more uplifting than the R1.50+ price hikes that have been on the cards for a while.

Bad news, everyone!

It’s worth noting that the prices below aren’t the ones we’ll see at the pumps on Wednesday, 6 March. Those have yet to be decided by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy — which it will do at the end of the month. Until then, the CEF’s predictions are all we’ve got to go on. That doesn’t mean they’re not accurate — and a valuable resource.

See, the CEF looks at all the same data that the Department does to arrive at its predictions. That means keeping an eye out for the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and the price of oil internationally. The only thing the CEF can’t account for is the Department’s monthly changes to the slate levy and retail margin — which has been known to add a good few cents into the mix.

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Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions (so far) for March 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 112 cents per litre (R1.12)
• Petrol 95: increase of 116 cents per litre (R1.16)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 113 cents per litre (R1.13)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 128 cents per litre (R1.28)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 69 cents per litre (R0.69)

That’s what the Central Energy Fund (CEF) had to say, at least. And when the CEF speaks, we tend to listen — because it’s the closest thing to being an ‘authority’ on the subject when it comes to petrol and diesel price predictions. Last week, the CEF was predicting somewhat, for lack of a better word, “tame” figures to break the Department’s streak. That’s… not the word we’d use now.

Can we skip straight to March? Pretty please?

Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s still plenty of time for things to turn around before the Department has its way with the country’s fuel pumps. That’ll be taking place on Wednesday, 7 February for any petrol price prediction newbies.

There’s time for a turn-around because of how the CEF collects its data and arrives at the figures we’ve got down below. It looks at all the same data that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy does — such as the average price of refined oil globally, and the month’s average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate used to purchase it — to arrive at a number that’s about as accurate as it can be.

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Even then, it’s worth remembering that the CEF doesn’t take into account any of the Department’s slate levies or retail margin changes, which have in the past, massively altered a month’s fuel prices.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for February 2024:

• Petrol 93: increase of 42 cents per litre (R0.42)
• Petrol 95: increase of 43 cents per litre (R0.43)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 44 cents per litre (R0.44)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 40 cents per litre (R0.40)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 34 cents per litre (R0.34)

Source

That’s not our fault, though. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has increased the country’s fuel prices since June, with no sign of a reprieve in sight. Until now, that is, according to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), which predicts the country’s fuel prices could be about to topple for the first time in months.

Good (petrol) news everyone!

If the country plays its cards right, we could see a R2/l drop in petrol and a 90c/l drop for diesel drivers come November. That’s if the CEF’s predicted figures are correct – which it gets by looking at the average price of Brent crude oil throughout the month and pairing it up with the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate. We don’t have to be familiar with the ins and outs to know we like what we see.  

Unfortunately, the CEF has no say in the country’s official fuel pricing. That’s a decision for the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, which looks at all the same factors the CEF does and throws in a levy hike or two before disappearing back into the shadows before the next ritual commences. This month, you can expect the price change at midnight on Wednesday, 1 November.

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You’d think, what with the Hamas-Israel conflict taking place, the price of Brent crude oil would be through the roof, right? Well, it is. Brent crude is trading for roughly $90 per barrel, down slightly from $94 a few days ago.  

According to Investec analyst Annabel Bishop, October’s average oil price ($88/b) still hasn’t reached the peak of $92/b in September. This is odd, considering X wasn’t losing its mind over which side of the Hamas-Israel war was correct back in September. It might have something to do with the US decision to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil late last week, ultimately relieving pressure to secure oil from the Middle East which… yeah, you already know.

Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for November 2023: 

• Petrol 93: decrease of 193 cents per litre (R1.93) 
• Petrol 95: decrease of 198 cents per litre (R1.98) 
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 93 cents per litre (R0.93) 
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 89 cents per litre (R0.89) 
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 85 cents per litre (R0.85) 

Source

A hefty month for diesel

Don’t panic just yet. We’ve still got two weeks to go before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy decides the country’s official petrol and diesel prices. So why are we discussing them now? Because the CEF makes unofficial predictions on the coming month’s fuel prices, based on the Rand/Dollar exchange rate, and the price of refined oil. Even so, the CEF is rarely wrong, so it’s worth paying attention.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will decide the country’s official petrol and diesel prices come midnight on Wednesday, 4 October 2023.

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Here are the fuel price predictions (so far) for September 2023:

• Petrol 93: increase of 115 cents per litre (R1.15)
• Petrol 95: increase of 123 cents per litre (R1.23)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 197 cents per litre (R1.97)
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 188 cents per litre (R1.88)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 180 cents per litre (R1.80)

We’ve been expecting an upward trend in the country’s petrol prices since August, thanks to the shortage of crude oil the US is currently facing. That’s expected to be the case for some time, with a barrel of Brent crude oil fetching $94, up from the $84 it was in mid-August.

Compared to last week’s predictions, prices aren’t looking as bleak but don’t get too excited. Petrol drivers are still absorbing the brunt of the Department of Energy’s might. Should the CEF’s predictions hold true until the first Wednesday of the new month (5 April), diesel and paraffin buyers face a decrease in costs.

All signs point to a petrol increase

Your bank account hasn’t suffered a mortal wound yet. The CEF’s figures are merely predictions – based on the current US Dollar/Rand exchange rate and the international price of refined oil. And with South Africa’s economy faltering at the slightest hiccup, the CEF’s predictions could drastically change from one week to the next.

The new month’s fuel costs are officially decided by the country’s Department of Energy at the beginning of the month – after it looks at all the facts.

Here are your fuel price predictions (so far) for April 2023:

• Petrol 95: increase of 30 cents per litre (R0.30)
• Petrol 93: increase of 29 cents per litre (R0.29)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 14 cents per litre (R0.14)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 16 cents per litre (R0.16)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 60 cents per litre (R0.60)

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We’re still hopeful that South Africa will make changes that’ll placate the CEF and, by extension, April’s petrol prices. For now, keep those hopes and dreams tamped down. There’s still a fortnight to endure before the Department has its way with our prices.

Source: Central Energy Fund

Still, the (potential) increases aren’t as bad as months gone by. In fact, they’re rather reasonable. Relatively speaking, of course.

Get your petrol while it’s still “cheap”

Before becoming lost in misery, remember that these predictions made by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) are not final. The CEF makes its predictions based on the current price of refined oil and the current dollar/rand exchange that’s needed to purchase the oil.

The real prices are decided by the Department of Energy before the first Wednesday of the new month – once all mitigating factors have been taken in and assessed. In this case, the official change is taking place on Wednesday, 1 February.

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Here are the predicted petrol and diesel prices for February 2023 (data captured by the CEF on 20 January):

• Petrol 95: increase of 25 cents per litre (R0.25)
• Petrol 93: increase of 32 cents per litre (R0.32)
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 5 cents per litre (R0.05)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 6 cents per litre (R0.06)
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 8 cents per litre (R0.08)

It’s not great, yes. But it’s not as bad as it could be. Diesel drivers (especially 0.005% drivers) in particular could escape more or less unscathed. Of course, there’s still time for the country to turn this around in the eight days until the official change. Or, it could send us hurtling down a worse path than we’re on now. Just… don’t get your hopes up.

Source: Central Energy Fund

If, for some reason, you’re extending your holiday all the way into February, filling up a little later might be a safer bet. Why? Well, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) is predicting yet another drop in petrol and diesel prices. It won’t be as grand as January’s drop, but we’ll take what we can get.

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Good (petrol) news everyone!

Prices are set to change at midnight on 1 February, the first Wednesday of the month. As usual, we warn you to take these predictions with a grain of salt – because that’s exactly what they are – predictions. The CEF makes its predictions based on the price of refined oil and the current US Dollar/Rand exchange. The Department of Energy decides the true prices that’ll reflect at the petrol pumps, once it’s taken all mitigating factors into account.

Without further ado, here are the expected petrol and diesel prices for February 2023 (data captured on 6 January 2023):

• Petrol 95: decrease of 74 cents per litre (R0.74)
• Petrol 93: decrease of 68 cents per litre (R0.68)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 121 cents per litre (R1.21)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 135 cents per litre (R1.35)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 97 cents per litre (R0.97)

As any South African will know, it doesn’t take much for the country to massively screw up. Should that happen, the drop won’t be as great as it looks here.

Still, it doesn’t hurt to get a bit excited about a possible drop, right?

Source: Central Energy Fund

But if the CEF’s predictions are accurate, you’re better off filling up after the New Year. That’s because we could be looking at the biggest fuel price drop of the past twelve months. Both petrol and diesel are looking at substantial decreases, with diesel finally getting the better part of the deal.

Disclaimer: these are just predictions and won’t be the number that reflects at the petrol pumps come the New Year. But where the CEF is concerned, its predictions are never far off.

That’s because the CEF makes its predictions based on the latest US/Rand exchange and the current price of refined oil. The Department of Energy – deciders of the true petrol price – makes its decisions based on similar factors.

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Holding thumbs

Without further ado, here are the expected petrol and diesel prices for January 2023;

• Petrol 95: decrease of 194 cents per litre (R1.94)
• Petrol 93: decrease of 197 cents per litre (R1.97)
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 328 cents per litre (R3.28)
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 337 cents per litre (R3.77)
• Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 251 cents per litre (R2.51)

We’ll be praying that these don’t change too much over the course of December. We know Eskom will be.

Source: Central Energy Fund